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Daily brief · Thursday, September 17
Thursday comes in two waves. The 6:13 PM forecast discussion has showers spreading north over the mountains through midday, then a second wave firing thunderstorms over the high terrain in the afternoon and evening. The zone forecast issued 5:58 PM has highs 55 to 66, south winds around 10, 70 percent.
The odds are firmer than the volume. Open-Meteo holds Thursday at 55 percent but cut its modeled rain total from 0.61 to 0.09 in between two runs fifteen minutes apart this evening. Above 11,000 ft the zone forecast reads 80 percent at 47 to 56, and Elbert's summit models 32 to 36 F all day with gusts near 33 mph at midday.
The flash flood risk in both products sits on the eastern San Juans, not here. Leadville district fire danger is posted Moderate tonight, down from Very High last night, and only Salida and San Carlos still read High.
Water: the Arkansas near Leadville is 10.8 cfs at 7:15 PM, Halfmoon Creek 10.3 cfs and 54.5 F at 7:30, Granite 60.4 F at 7:45, all easing off Monday's peaks.
Sunrise 6:48, sunset 7:10. Five US 24 work zones run Thursday between Minturn and Buena Vista.
Written 2026-09-16, 8:05 PM MT.
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A daily precipitation percentage is the day's own maximum from 5 AM to midnight, not a schedule; an overnight storm crossing the date line counts toward the evening it belongs to, not the morning after. Where a day is wet enough for timing to matter, the orange line under its percentage gives the longest continuous stretch of that day whose own hourly probability reaches most of the daily figure. It is read from hourly model data and, at several days of lead time, that data arrives in multi-hour blocks, so treat the edges as guidance rather than as a start time. The word under each day names the class of weather that lasts, meaning at least two of that day's 5 AM to midnight hours; a single modeled hour of rain or thunder no longer labels an otherwise quiet day, and a snow label additionally needs an hour at or below 36 F.
Data in this page rendered 09/16/2026 20:13 MT (NOAA/NWS models via Open-Meteo, USGS gauges); your browser also refreshes these numbers live on load.
Up high
Model forecasts corrected to each elevation, conditions above treeline are usually far harsher than town. Afternoon thunderstorms are common in summer; most parties plan to be off high summits and passes by early afternoon. The storm-risk line under each peak is a modeled estimate, not an observation: it reads Open-Meteo hourly precipitation probability and CAPE at that peak's own elevation across the 11 AM to 8 PM window, and reports the window peak plus the first hour that reaches 30 percent. It is a planning input for turnaround times, not a forecast of whether a specific storm will hit you. Check the official NWS forecast and read the sky before you go.
Water · flows & temps7-day detail
| Gauge | Flow | Water temp |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas R. nr Leadville | 10.8 cfs | - |
| Halfmoon Creek | 10.3 cfs | 54.5°F |
| Arkansas R. at Granite | - | 60.4°F |
Snowpack · checked 2026-09-16
Snow water equivalent 0 in, snow depth 0 in, daily value for 2026-09-15. Station medians: first snow water Oct 12, peak 20.8 in on May 11, melt-out Jun 22. Nearest automated snow station to Leadville, on Fremont Pass north of town. Baked in at build time from USDA NRCS data.
Trails & roads · notices verified 2026-09-16
Highway status · checked 2026-09-16, 8:10 PM MT
Leadville to I-70 at Copper Mtn, MP 0 to 22.6. Surface condition operator-confirmed dry at 6:29 PM tonight. Worth knowing how narrow that stamp is: rain began at the Leadville airport gauge around 6:42 PM, thirteen minutes after the confirmation, so treat dry as the last operator reading rather than the state of the road right now. CDOT's own NDFD line on this segment, refreshed at 7:30 PM, expects light rain showers and gusts to 12 mph. For live surface status between pulls, CDOT's traveler map at cotrip.org is the authority. · The Lake County zone forecast issued 5:58 PM Wednesday has Thursday with rain showers likely in the morning, then thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, highs 55 to 66, south winds around 10 mph, 70 percent. Above 11,000 ft the same issuance reads 80 percent at 47 to 56, so the pass top is the wetter half of the drive. The area forecast discussion posted 6:13 PM splits the day in two: a morning wave of showers spreading north over the mountains through midday, then a second wave firing thunderstorms over the high terrain in the afternoon and evening. Friday stays wet, 60 percent in town and 70 above 11,000.
Minturn at I-70 south to Buena Vista, MP 143.4 to 210.8, the whole Leadville approach in one COtrip segment. Surface condition operator-confirmed dry at 6:29 PM tonight, same thirteen-minute caveat as CO 91. CDOT's NDFD line for this segment, refreshed at 7:30 PM, reads likelihood of light rain showers with gusts to 18 mph. No incident records were on the corridor at tonight's pull. Scheduled work is a different story and is listed below. · Same shape as CO 91: showers through the morning, thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening, and the higher ground carrying the larger share. Tennessee Pass sits above 10,400 ft and takes the above-11,000 numbers more nearly than the town ones. Elbert's summit is modeled between 32 and 35 F all Thursday, so the freezing line is close to the high country even though modeled snowfall stays at zero.
The safety improvement project is back on the corridor after two nights with nothing published. MP 167, between County Road 21A and Forest Service Road 145 about five miles west of Leadville North, is posted continuously from Sep 13 at 12:00 AM through Sep 19 at 11:59 PM: alternating traffic, an 11 ft width limit, reduced speed and up to 20 minute delays, in place overnight as well as by day. Two more zones run Thursday and Friday from 7:59 AM to 7:00 PM with the same rules: MP 170 between County Road 21 and Tennessee Creek Road, and MP 174 to 175 between County Road 99 and Mountain View Drive. Drive the stretch before 8 AM or after 7 PM and only the MP 167 zone is live. Pulled from the CDOT planned-events feed Sep 16, 8:10 PM MT.
Paving between CO 82, a mile east of Twin Lakes, and County Road 385, seven miles west of Buena Vista. Alternating traffic and a 12 ft width limit, posted 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM on Sep 17, Sep 18 and Sep 19. This is the southern approach, so it is the one that matters for anyone coming up from Salida or Poncha Pass. Pulled Sep 16, 8:10 PM MT.
Minturn, between Cross Creek Road and Forest Service Road 762, runs alternating traffic with an 11 ft width limit from 7:00 AM to 7:59 PM on Sep 17 and Sep 18. That is the first work you meet coming down from I-70. At the far south end, the US 24 bridge over the Arkansas near Johnson Village keeps its right lane closed with an 11 ft width limit until Thursday at about 5:00 PM, with full stops and 30 to 45 minute delays; the feed then shows it returning Sep 22 at 7:00 AM through Sep 25 at 5:00 PM. An absence of a Saturday or Sunday window means CDOT has not published one, not that a zone is confirmed clear. Pulled Sep 16, 8:10 PM MT.
Highway data from CDOT / COtrip, state highways only: surface conditions and scheduled work from CDOT's road-conditions and planned-events feeds, and active incidents (red bar) from its incident feed, each stamped with the time CDOT reported it. County and forest roads are covered in the notices below.
Fire danger · read 2026-09-16, 8:15 PM MT
Read from the Forest Service alerts page, which posts a rating for each of the eight districts and grasslands it covers. Salida and San Carlos read High tonight; Pikes Peak, South Park, South Platte, Leadville, Cimarron and Comanche all read Moderate. A rating is a daily judgement about how easily a fire starts and spreads; it is not a restriction, and the signed restriction orders are in the notices below. Readings recorded on this site: 2026-08-16 High, 2026-09-15 Very High, 2026-09-16 Moderate. Only dates this site actually read the field. The gap between Aug 16 and Sep 15 is not a claim that the rating held steady; nobody here looked. Source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF.
USFS order 02-12-01-26-36 was signed Aug 19 and runs from Aug 21 at 12:01 AM through Sep 30 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. It supersedes order 02-12-01-26-33, and the affected recreation site list is not the same. Still closed: Mount Massive Wilderness, Mount Massive Trail 1487, Highline and Native Lake Trail 1489, Willow Creek Trailhead, Elbert Creek Campground, Halfmoon East and Halfmoon West Campgrounds, and Colorado Trail 1776 Segment 11 at the Mount Massive Trailhead. Newly listed compared with the previous order: Mount Massive Trail 1487 and the Colorado Trail segment. No longer listed: North Mount Elbert Trail 1484, Windsor Lake Trail 1490 and North Halfmoon Creek Trail 1485. The described area now runs south of Turquoise Lake, south of County Road 4 and NFSR 105 to Busk Creek, east of the tree line at the Busk Creek switchback, south and east along the eastern slope of Mount Massive to the wilderness boundary near the North Halfmoon Trailhead, east to the main Mount Massive Trailhead, and from there along the NORTH side of Halfmoon Creek to the east boundary of the forest. Whether the standard Mt. Elbert north route falls inside or outside the closure is set by the map exhibit attached to the order, not by the rec-site list, and Elbert Creek Campground is still closed. Call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749 before you plan on it. Order number, signature date, effective dates, described area and rec-site list were read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 16 at 8:15 PM, unchanged. The alert page itself was opened Sep 16 at 8:15 PM and its Alert End Date still reads September 30, 2026, two weeks out. This is now the operative closure. Both 2026 Leadville 100 races have now been run on courses rerouted around the earlier version of this closure, with Hagerman Pass Road, Sugarloaf Mountain and Powerline off both. The closure itself outlasts the race season: it runs to Sep 30 unless rescinded, so it governs autumn hiking on Mount Massive and the Halfmoon drainage, not just race week.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
Order 02-12-00-26-37, signed Aug 20, replaced the Stage 2 order 02-12-00-26-29 that had covered the Leadville Ranger District since Aug 2. Stage 1 took effect at 12:01 AM on Aug 21 and runs through Nov 14 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded, across the Leadville, Salida, San Carlos, Pikes Peak, South Park and South Platte districts. What actually changes: campfires are permitted again, but only in a permanent metal or concrete fire pit or grate that the Forest Service has installed and maintains at a developed recreation site, meaning campgrounds and picnic areas. Dispersed camping still means no fire of any kind, including charcoal and briquettes. A device fuelled solely by liquid or gas that can be turned on and off is allowed in an area cleared of flammable material within three feet, and a fully enclosed metal stove with a chimney at least five feet long and a quarter inch spark arrestor is allowed with ten feet cleared. Smoking is prohibited except in an enclosed vehicle or building, at a developed recreation site, or while stopped in a barren three foot circle. Explosives are prohibited and welding needs a ten foot cleared area and an extinguisher. The practical version for anyone camping here through the autumn: a fire is legal at a developed campground fire ring and nowhere else on forest land. Read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 16 at 8:15 PM, unchanged. The Forest Service posts fire danger by district on the same alerts page, and the Leadville Ranger District reading has moved. It was posted Very High on Sep 15, the highest of the eight districts listed; at the Sep 16 read it is posted Moderate, which is the lowest reading on the board tonight, with only Salida and San Carlos still at High. Two days of rain sit between the two readings. The restrictions themselves are unchanged by that: Stage 1 is a signed order that runs to Nov 14 unless it is rescinded, and a fire danger rating is a separate daily judgement about how easily fire starts and spreads.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
The Forest Service alert list carries a Leadville Ranger District closure of Turquoise Lake Road, County Road 4, due to asphalt damage. The road is barricaded from the Abe Lee parking turnoff to Hagerman Pass. Access to Turquoise Lake is still available via County Road 9C and County Road 9 to the Hagerman Pass intersection, and the Abe Lee fishing site remains open and reachable from CR 4. The alert start date is April 7, 2026 and no end date is posted. It did not affect the three official crew locations for the 2026 Run, which were Outward Bound, Pipeline Alternate and Twin Lakes Village. With the race season over it matters most to anglers and to anyone driving the lake loop, because the through route to Hagerman Pass from the Abe Lee end is gone. It has now been closed for five months with no end date posted. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 16 at 8:15 PM, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
USFS order 02-12-01-26-19 closes the Interlaken Hotel and Annex area on the Leadville Ranger District from June 22, 2026 at 12:01 AM through June 21, 2028 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. Entering the described area is prohibited, for public safety in an area with known hazards from tree fall and damaged buildings. The described area is defined only by the map exhibit attached to the order, so where its boundary falls relative to the Colorado Trail is not stated in the order text. If your Twin Lakes plans involve walking out toward Interlaken, call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749. The order runs to June 2028, so this is a two year condition rather than a seasonal one. Note also that an older district alert from June 12 still says the Dexter House is safe to tour while other buildings should be avoided; the June 22 closure order is the later and stricter document. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 16 at 8:15 PM, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
The road over Mosquito Pass (13,185 ft) is a rough, high-clearance 4x4 route, typically passable only mid-summer through early fall depending on snow. There is no official live status feed for this county road, so reports from recent travelers and the ranger district are the best sources. No closure or restriction is posted for it on the district alert list as of the full re-read at 8:15 PM Sep 16.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
Checked each evening against official sources, USFS alerts, InciWeb fire closures, and CDOT. Always verify with the land manager before you go: Pike-San Isabel NF (Leadville Ranger District) · COtrip road conditions (US 24 / CO 91) · CAIC avalanche forecasts (winter).
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