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humidity 81%
Daily brief · Wednesday, September 16
Wednesday is the wet day. The zone forecast issued 7:17 PM has a chance of rain showers in the morning, then showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, highs 59 to 68, south winds under 10 mph, 60 percent. Wednesday night runs 80 percent with lows 40 to 48.
Above 11,000 ft the same issuance puts Wednesday at 80 percent, highs 49 to 60. The outlook issued 11:39 AM has abundant moisture Wednesday through Friday, most storms over the mountains, and flash flooding possible on area burn scars Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday reads 90 percent at both elevations.
Further out, the above 11,000 forecast carries snow showers alongside its thunderstorm chances from Saturday through next Tuesday, with lows 29 to 35. The town forecast carries none.
Water: Monday's rain is still draining. Halfmoon Creek reads 11.8 cfs at 53.2 F at 9:30 PM, off its 17.5 cfs peak Monday afternoon but still double Sunday evening's 5.40. The Arkansas near Leadville is 12.1 cfs at 9:15 PM. Granite is 60.8 F at 8:45 PM, under the 65 F trout-stress line.
Sunrise 6:47. Leadville district fire danger is posted Very High, with Stage 1 restrictions through Nov 14.
Written 2026-09-15, 9:56 PM MT.
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A daily precipitation percentage is the day's own maximum from 5 AM to midnight, not a schedule; an overnight storm crossing the date line counts toward the evening it belongs to, not the morning after. Where a day is wet enough for timing to matter, the orange line under its percentage gives the longest continuous stretch of that day whose own hourly probability reaches most of the daily figure. It is read from hourly model data and, at several days of lead time, that data arrives in multi-hour blocks, so treat the edges as guidance rather than as a start time. The word under each day names the class of weather that lasts, meaning at least two of that day's 5 AM to midnight hours; a single modeled hour of rain or thunder no longer labels an otherwise quiet day, and a snow label additionally needs an hour at or below 36 F.
Data in this page rendered live at 09/16/2026 01:32 MT (NOAA/NWS models via Open-Meteo, USGS gauges); your browser also refreshes these numbers on load.
Up high
Model forecasts corrected to each elevation, conditions above treeline are usually far harsher than town. Afternoon thunderstorms are common in summer; most parties plan to be off high summits and passes by early afternoon. The storm-risk line under each peak is a modeled estimate, not an observation: it reads Open-Meteo hourly precipitation probability and CAPE at that peak's own elevation across the 11 AM to 8 PM window, and reports the window peak plus the first hour that reaches 30 percent. It is a planning input for turnaround times, not a forecast of whether a specific storm will hit you. Check the official NWS forecast and read the sky before you go.
Water · flows & temps7-day detail
| Gauge | Flow | Water temp |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas R. nr Leadville | 11.8 cfs | - |
| Halfmoon Creek | 11.1 cfs | 51.6°F |
| Arkansas R. at Granite | - | 56.8°F |
Snowpack · checked 2026-09-14
Snow water equivalent 0 in, snow depth 0 in, daily value for 2026-09-13. Station medians: first snow water Oct 12, peak 20.8 in on May 11, melt-out Jun 22. Nearest automated snow station to Leadville, on Fremont Pass north of town. Baked in at build time from USDA NRCS data.
Trails & roads · notices verified 2026-09-15
Highway status · checked 2026-09-14, 8:05 PM MT
Leadville to I-70 at Copper Mtn, MP 0 to 22.6. Surface condition operator-confirmed dry at 6:57 PM on Sep 14, from an operator entry last updated 3:04 PM that day. The surface and event figures on this board come from the Sep 14, 8:05 PM COtrip pull; the forecast line below was rewritten from the Sep 15, 7:17 PM National Weather Service issuance. For live surface status between pulls, CDOT's own traveler map at cotrip.org is the authority. · The Lake County zone forecast issued 7:17 PM Tuesday has Wednesday mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, highs 59 to 68, south winds up to 10 mph, 60 percent. Wednesday night carries periods of rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then periods of rain showers after, 80 percent, lows 40 to 48. Above 11,000 ft the same issuance has Wednesday at 80 percent with highs 49 to 60, so the pass tops are the wetter half of the drive. Thursday reads 90 percent at both elevations. The hazardous weather outlook issued 11:39 AM Tuesday has abundant moisture Wednesday through Friday with the majority of storms over the mountains.
Minturn at I-70 south to Buena Vista, MP 143.4 to 210.8, the whole Leadville approach in one COtrip segment. Surface condition operator-confirmed dry at 6:57 PM on Sep 14. No incident records were on the corridor at that pull beyond the long-standing Minturn MP 145.1 utility entry, open since Jul 16 and carrying no mile-point detail or end time. The surface and event figures here come from the Sep 14, 8:05 PM pull; the forecast line was rewritten from the Sep 15, 7:17 PM issuance. · Same shape as CO 91: a drier morning, then showers likely from the afternoon and a wetter night, with the higher ground carrying the larger share. Tennessee Pass sits above 10,400 ft and takes the above-11,000 numbers more nearly than the town ones.
The Sep 14, 8:05 PM pull found no scheduled work published anywhere between Minturn and Buena Vista and none on CO 91, the second consecutive evening with an empty corridor. The culvert and guardrail zone at MP 166 to 168, between Tennessee Pass Summit and Sylvan Lakes Road, ran its last posted block through Sep 12 at 11:59 PM and is out of the CDOT planned-events feed; the only US 24 planned events in the statewide feed at that pull were two records at MP 309.7 to 309.9 in El Paso County. An absence in the feed means CDOT has not published a window, not that a road is confirmed clear; these zones are posted a few days at a time and the Minturn, Twin Lakes to Buena Vista and Johnson Village jobs have all dropped out and returned before. The wider resurfacing project runs May through November. Checked Sep 14, 8:05 PM MT.
Highway data from CDOT / COtrip, state highways only: surface conditions and scheduled work from CDOT's road-conditions and planned-events feeds, and active incidents (red bar) from its incident feed, each stamped with the time CDOT reported it. County and forest roads are covered in the notices below.
USFS order 02-12-01-26-36 was signed Aug 19 and runs from Aug 21 at 12:01 AM through Sep 30 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. It supersedes order 02-12-01-26-33, and the affected recreation site list is not the same. Still closed: Mount Massive Wilderness, Mount Massive Trail 1487, Highline and Native Lake Trail 1489, Willow Creek Trailhead, Elbert Creek Campground, Halfmoon East and Halfmoon West Campgrounds, and Colorado Trail 1776 Segment 11 at the Mount Massive Trailhead. Newly listed compared with the previous order: Mount Massive Trail 1487 and the Colorado Trail segment. No longer listed: North Mount Elbert Trail 1484, Windsor Lake Trail 1490 and North Halfmoon Creek Trail 1485. The described area now runs south of Turquoise Lake, south of County Road 4 and NFSR 105 to Busk Creek, east of the tree line at the Busk Creek switchback, south and east along the eastern slope of Mount Massive to the wilderness boundary near the North Halfmoon Trailhead, east to the main Mount Massive Trailhead, and from there along the NORTH side of Halfmoon Creek to the east boundary of the forest. Whether the standard Mt. Elbert north route falls inside or outside the closure is set by the map exhibit attached to the order, not by the rec-site list, and Elbert Creek Campground is still closed. Call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749 before you plan on it. Order number, signature date, effective dates, described area and rec-site list were read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 15 at 10:00 PM, unchanged. This is now the operative closure. Both 2026 Leadville 100 races have now been run on courses rerouted around the earlier version of this closure, with Hagerman Pass Road, Sugarloaf Mountain and Powerline off both. The closure itself outlasts the race season: it runs to Sep 30 unless rescinded, so it governs autumn hiking on Mount Massive and the Halfmoon drainage, not just race week.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
Order 02-12-00-26-37, signed Aug 20, replaced the Stage 2 order 02-12-00-26-29 that had covered the Leadville Ranger District since Aug 2. Stage 1 took effect at 12:01 AM on Aug 21 and runs through Nov 14 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded, across the Leadville, Salida, San Carlos, Pikes Peak, South Park and South Platte districts. What actually changes: campfires are permitted again, but only in a permanent metal or concrete fire pit or grate that the Forest Service has installed and maintains at a developed recreation site, meaning campgrounds and picnic areas. Dispersed camping still means no fire of any kind, including charcoal and briquettes. A device fuelled solely by liquid or gas that can be turned on and off is allowed in an area cleared of flammable material within three feet, and a fully enclosed metal stove with a chimney at least five feet long and a quarter inch spark arrestor is allowed with ten feet cleared. Smoking is prohibited except in an enclosed vehicle or building, at a developed recreation site, or while stopped in a barren three foot circle. Explosives are prohibited and welding needs a ten foot cleared area and an extinguisher. The practical version for anyone camping here through the autumn: a fire is legal at a developed campground fire ring and nowhere else on forest land. Read directly from the order text on Aug 20. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 15 at 10:00 PM, unchanged. The Forest Service posts fire danger by district on the same alerts page: at the Sep 15 read the Leadville Ranger District is posted Very High, the highest of the eight districts listed.
Official source: USFS Pike-San Isabel NF
The Forest Service alert list carries a Leadville Ranger District closure of Turquoise Lake Road, County Road 4, due to asphalt damage. The road is barricaded from the Abe Lee parking turnoff to Hagerman Pass. Access to Turquoise Lake is still available via County Road 9C and County Road 9 to the Hagerman Pass intersection, and the Abe Lee fishing site remains open and reachable from CR 4. The alert start date is April 7, 2026 and no end date is posted. It did not affect the three official crew locations for the 2026 Run, which were Outward Bound, Pipeline Alternate and Twin Lakes Village. With the race season over it matters most to anglers and to anyone driving the lake loop, because the through route to Hagerman Pass from the Abe Lee end is gone. It has now been closed for five months with no end date posted. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 15 at 10:00 PM, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
USFS order 02-12-01-26-19 closes the Interlaken Hotel and Annex area on the Leadville Ranger District from June 22, 2026 at 12:01 AM through June 21, 2028 at 11:59 PM unless rescinded. Entering the described area is prohibited, for public safety in an area with known hazards from tree fall and damaged buildings. The described area is defined only by the map exhibit attached to the order, so where its boundary falls relative to the Colorado Trail is not stated in the order text. If your Twin Lakes plans involve walking out toward Interlaken, call the Leadville Ranger District at 719-486-0749. The order runs to June 2028, so this is a two year condition rather than a seasonal one. Note also that an older district alert from June 12 still says the Dexter House is safe to tour while other buildings should be avoided; the June 22 closure order is the later and stricter document. Re-read on the full district alert list Sep 15 at 10:00 PM, unchanged.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
The road over Mosquito Pass (13,185 ft) is a rough, high-clearance 4x4 route, typically passable only mid-summer through early fall depending on snow. There is no official live status feed for this county road, so reports from recent travelers and the ranger district are the best sources. No closure or restriction is posted for it on the district alert list as of the full re-read at 10:00 PM Sep 15.
Official source: USFS Leadville Ranger District
Checked each evening against official sources, USFS alerts, InciWeb fire closures, and CDOT. Always verify with the land manager before you go: Pike-San Isabel NF (Leadville Ranger District) · COtrip road conditions (US 24 / CO 91) · CAIC avalanche forecasts (winter).
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